Nthano · Nthano · mphindi 6

Nthano: Manambala Ndi Oyenera Kutuluka

“Khumi ndi zisanu ndi ziwiri sinatuluke m’mazungulidwe 150. Yayenera kutuluka.” Sinayenere.

Yankho lalifupi

Nambala imene sinaoneke kwa nthawi yaitali ili ndi mwayi wofanana ndendende pa kuzungulira kotsatira ngati nambala ina iliyonse: 1/37. Chikhulupiriro choti “yayenera kutuluka” ndi chinyengo cha wotchova juga cholumikizidwa ndi bolodi la zotsatira.

p(17 yotsatira)
1/37, nthawi zonse
p(palibe 17 m’mazungulidwe 150)
1.7%
kangati zimachitika kwinakwake
nthawi zonse
chigamulo
nthano

Zimene zimanenedwa

Makasino amaonetsa zotsatira 20 mpaka 500 zomaliza ndipo nthawi zambiri amalemba manambala “ozizira” amene sanagunde kwa kanthawi. Osewera amawerenga bolodi, amaona kuti 17 sinapezeke kwa mazungulidwe 150, ndipo amaibetcha chifukwa iyenera kutuluka. Maganizo ake ndi akuti pa nthawi yaitali nambala iliyonse imagunda 1/37 ya nthawi, choncho nambala imene ili m’mbuyo iyenera kupeza.

Chifukwa chake n’zolakwika

Kuzungulira kulikonse n’kodziyimira payokha. MpirazipangizoMpiraMpira waung’ono umene umaponyedwa mu njira motsutsana ndi rotor. Mipira yamakono ndi ya ivorine kapena Teflon, 18–21 mm.Werengani yonse → sudziwa kuti 17 sinapezeke, ndipo kabowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse → kali ndi kukula komwe kanali nako. Gawo la pa nthawi yaitali limayandikira posungunuka, osati pokonzedwa: pambuyo pa mazungulidwe ena 10,000, kusowa kwa mazungulidwe 150 kumakhala kakang’ono kosafunika, osati chifukwa 17 inagunda kawirikawiri koma chifukwa chitsanzo chinakula. Lamulo la manambala akuluakulumasamuLamulo la manambala akuluakuluAvareji ya zotsatira zodziyimira payokha imayandikira mtengo woyembekezeka pamene chiwerengero cha mayesero chikukula.Werengani yonse → silifuna kuti nambala iliyonse ipeze; limangofuna kuti kusinthasintha kwam’mbuyo kukhale kochepa poyerekeza ndi chiwerengero chonse.

Kangati nambala inayake imasowa kwa mazungulidwe k osachepera%
mazungulidwe 37
36.3%
mazungulidwe 74
13.2%
mazungulidwe 100
6.5%
mazungulidwe 150
1.7%
mazungulidwe 200
0.4%
%
018.1536.3%
(36/37)ᵏ. Ndi manambala 37 pa gudumu lililonse mu kasino iliyonse, kusowa kwa mazungulidwe 150 kukuchitika kwinakwake pakali pano.

Chifukwa chake chimamveka choona

Chifukwa m’mbali zina zonse za moyo, kusapezeka kumalosera kufika: basi imene sinabwere kwa mphindi makumi awiri ili ndi mwayi waukulu wobwera m’mphindi zisanu zotsatira. Zili choncho chifukwa mabasi ali ndi ndandanda. Roulette ilibe ndandanda; ili ndi kuthekeramasamuKuthekeraMwayi wa zotsatira, kuchokera 0 mpaka 1 kapena 0% mpaka 100%. Nambala imodzi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Werengani yonse →, ndipo kuthekera si gawo lokakamizidwa. Maganizo amenewa ndi abwino pa zambiri za dziko lapansi ndipo ndi olakwika pa gudumu.

Mayeso

Lembani manambala zana “ozizira” kuchokera pa mabolodi a zotsatira ndipo betchani lililonse kwa mazungulidwe 37 otsatira. Kuchuluka kwa kugunda kudzakhala 1/37 pa kuzungulira kulikonse, chimodzimodzi ndi nambala iliyonse yosankhidwa mwachisawawa, kuphatikiza kapena kuchotsa phokoso. Bolodi la zotsatira ndi kufotokoza kwa zam’mbuyo. Lilibe chilichonse cholosera pa gudumu lachilungamo, ndipo pa gudumu lokonderalabuGudumu lokonderaGudumu limene zolakwika zake zakuthupi zimapangitsa tibowo tina kukhala ndi kuthekera kopitirira 1/37. Ndi losowa, ndipo limadziwika pokhapokha ndi kuzungulira masauzande ambiri kolembedwa.Werengani yonse → (limene lingafune mazungulidwe masauzande kuti litsimikizidwe) manambala otenthanthanoNambala yotenthaNambala imene yatuluka kawirikawiri kuposa moyembekezeka posachedwapa. Pa gudumu lachilungamo siilosera chilichonse.Werengani yonse →, osati ozizira, ndi amene angakhale oyenera kubetcha.

Kukula kwa ChitsanzoZotsatira za Roulette: Kuwerenga Bolodi

Nthano yotembenuzidwa

“Khumi ndi zisanu ndi ziwiri ndi yotentha, ibetcheni” ndi cholakwa chomwecho chotembenuzidwa. Zikhulupiriro zonse ziwiri zili ndi mtengo woyembekezekamasamuMtengo woyembekezekaZotsatira zapakati pa betcha lililonse pa nthawi yayitali. −1/37 ya ndalama zobetcha pa betcha lililonse la ku Ulaya wamba.Werengani yonse → wofanana ndi kutseka maso ndi kuloza: −2.70% ya ndalama zobetcha. Pa Masewera Oyesera, yendetsani mbiri ndipo werengani kangati nambala yoziziranthanoNambala yoziziraNambala imene sinatuluke kwa kuzungulira kochuluka. Pa gudumu lachilungamo siuza chilichonse za kuzungulira kwa m’tsogolo.Werengani yonse → imagunda m’mazungulidwe 37 otsatira; yankho ndi pafupifupi 63.7%, ndendende ngati nambala ina iliyonse.

Mafunso

Kodi kasino imaonetsa manambala ozizira kuti inyenge osewera?

Imawaonetsa chifukwa osewera amafunsa. Bolodi ndi lolondola ndiponso lopanda ntchito.

Nanga bwanji nambala imene sinagunde m’mazungulidwe 500?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: zosowa, ndipo komabe 1/37 pa kuzungulira kotsatira. Ngati zimachitikabe pa gudumu limodzi, limenelo ndi funso la kukondera, ndipo yankho lingakhale kupewa nambalayo.

Kodi nambala iliyonse imakhala yoyenera kutuluka nthawi ina?

Ayi.

Nthabwala yopumitsa

Kuthekera si gawo lokakamizidwa.

Kuthekera si gawo lokakamizidwa.

Magwero

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, kope la 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, mutu XIV.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Mutu 13, roulette.
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