Njira ya Roulette ya D'Alembert
Njira ya roulette ya D’Alembert imawonjezera unit imodzi pambuyo pa kuluza ndipo imachotsa imodzi pambuyo pa kupambana.
Siigonjetsa gudumu. Ndi progressionnjiraProgressionLamulo lililonse limene limasintha ndalama zobetcha potengera zotsatira zakale. Maprogression olakwika amazikweza pambuyo poluza, abwino pambuyo popambana.Werengani yonse → yodziwika yathyathyathya kwambiri: ndalama zobetcha zimakwera pang’onopang’ono, kutsika kwa ndalama ndi kwapakati, ndipo phindu la kasino silikhudzidwa.
Yendani mu dongosolo
Kuluza kumakwera sitepe imodzi. Kupambana kumabwerera sitepe imodzi.
Ndalama zobetcha ndi zotsatira zili mu ma unit a betcha loyambira.
Dongosolo la roulette la D’Alembert, sitepe ndi sitepe
Betchani unitndalamaUnitNdalama zobetcha zoyambira zimene dongosolo kapena wosewera amagwiritsa ntchito. Maprogression amafotokozedwa mu ma unit kuti agwire ntchito pa tebulo lililonse.Werengani yonse → imodzi. Mwaluza, betcha lotsatira ndi lalikulu ndi unit imodzi. Mwapambana, ndi laling’ono ndi unit imodzi, osatsika pansi pa imodzi. Basi. Ganizirani chosewerera cha mbali ziwiri: kuluza kulikonse kumakweza ndalama zobetcha pang’ono ndipo kupambana kulikonse kumazitsitsa. Chikhulupiriro chomwe chili pansi pake ndi chakuti kupambana ndi kuluza zidzafanana, choncho ndalama zobetcha zidzabwerera poyambira. Kukopa kwake ndi kwakuti awiri aliwonse a kupambana kumodzi ndi kuluza kumodzi pa ndalama zobetcha zoyandikana amapereka +1 unit: lutani 3, pambanani 4, zotsatira +1.
Kodi gawo la masewera limaoneka bwanji?
Mofatsa, ndi ndalama zobetcha zimene zimakwera pang’onopang’ono. Popeza kuluza kumaposa kupambana 19 ku 18 pa even money, ndalama zobetcha zimakwera pa gawo lalitali la masewera. Chifukwa ndalama zobetcha zimakhala zapamwamba kwambiri pamene mwakhala mukuluza, ndi zotsika pamene mukupambana, avareji ya ndalama zobetcha pa nthawi zoluza imaposa avareji pa nthawi zopambana. Magawo a masewera ndi osalala kuposa MartingalenjiraMartingaleProgression yowirikiza betcha pambuyo poluza kulikonse. Onani gawo la Njira kuti mudziwe zimene imachita ndi zimene siimachita.Werengani yonse →, ndi kutsika kwa ndalamandalamaKutsika kwa ndalamaKutsika kuchoka pa msonga wa ndalama zosewerera kufika pa mlingo wotsika pambuyo pake mu gawo la masewera. Kutsika kwakukulu ndiko kutsika kwakukulu koposa kotere.Werengani yonse → kwapakati ndipo palibe kuphompho, ndipo amataya pang’ono kuposa kubetcha mofanananjiraKubetcha mofananaKubetcha ndalama zofanana pa kuzungulira kulikonse. Muyeso umene progression iliyonse imayerekezeredwa nawo.Werengani yonse → pa avareji chifukwa avareji ya ndalama zobetcha ndi yokwera.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- pakati −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Kodi dongosolo la D’Alembert limagwira ntchito?
Ayi. Gawo la masewera lofanana limapambana, ndipo magawo sakhalabe ofanana. Pambuyo pa kupambana w ndi kuluza l pa ndalama zobetcha zoyandikana zotsatira ndi w − l ma unit kuphatikiza kukonza kwa malo amene munali pa makwerero. Ngati w = l zotsatira ndi ndendende +w ma unit, zimene zimaoneka ngati phindu lotsimikizika. Vuto ndi lakuti w = l si nkhani yoyembekezeka: pa kuzungulira 37 mumayembekezera kupambana 18 ndi kuluza 19. Kuluza kumodzi kowonjezera pa ndalama zobetcha zimene zakwera kufika, tinene, ma unit 8 kumawononga kuposa awiri asanu ndi atatu a +1 opangidwa. Chiyembekezo chimafika pa −1/37 ya ndalama zonse zobetchedwandalamaNdalama zonse zobetchedwaNdalama zonse zobetchedwa mu gawo la masewera kapena nthawi inayake, kuphatikizapo ndalama zopambana zobetchedwanso. Zimatchedwanso: handle, action.Werengani yonse →, monga ziyenera kukhalira.
Chifukwa chiyani magawo aafupi nthawi zambiri amapambana?
Nkhani yofanana ndi gawo la lamulo limodzi limene limaphimba gawo lililonse la masewera. Tiyerekeze D ndi chiwerengero cha kuluza kuchotsa chiwerengero cha kupambana. Gawo la kuzungulira N limene limayambira pa unit imodzi limatha pa (N − D²)/2 − D ma unit, malinga ngati palibe betcha la unit imodzi limene lapambana (pambuyo pa kupambana kotere ndalama zobetcha zilibe potsikira). Ndi D = 0 zimenezo ndi +N/2, +w ya gawo lomwe lili pamwambapa. Kuluza kowonjezera kulikonse kumawerengedwa kuchulukitsidwa ndi kokha: pambuyo pa kuzungulira 100 D ya 4 imasiyabe ma unit +38, D ya 8 imasiya +10, ndipo D ya 10 imasiya −10. Mwayi wokha umafalitsa D ndi pafupifupi √N, khumi pambuyo pa kuzungulira 100, ndipo m’masewera opanda zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse → phindu la magawo ambiri ofanana ndi kutaya kwa ochepa opendekeka zimafafanizana ndendende. Ziro imawonjezera kuluza kumodzi pa kuzungulira 37 kulikonse pa avareji, ndipo chifukwa D imachulukitsidwa ndi yokha mtengo wake umakula mwachangu kuposa gawo la masewera. Magawo ambiri a kuzungulira mpaka 100 amatha muli patsogolo; avareji siitero konse, ndipo pambuyo pa kuzungulira mazana angapo magawo ambiri amaluzanso.
Bwanji ngati mutaitembenuza?
Contra-D’Alembert, yotchedwanso D’Alembert yotembenuzidwa, imawonjezera unit pambuyo pa kupambana ndipo imachotsa imodzi pambuyo pa kuluza. Imafanana ndendende ndi yoyambirira mopindika. Malinga ngati palibe betcha la unit imodzi limene laluza, gawo la kuzungulira N limatha pa (D² − N)/2 + D ma unit, pamene D tsopano ndi kupambana kuchotsa kuluza. Gawo lofanana limataya theka la unit pa kuzungulira kulikonse, ndipo kupambana motsatizana kokha kumene kuli patsogolo kwambiri pa kuluza ndiko kumapereka phindu. Choncho magawo ambiri amataya pang’ono ndipo ochepa amapambana zambiri, kusiyana ndi mawonekedwe a yoyambirira, ndipo avareji ndi 2.70% yomweyo ya ndalama zobetchedwa.
Kodi d’Alembert anali ndani?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, katswiri wa masamu ndi mkonzi mnzake wa Encyclopédie, ananena m’nkhani ya 1754 kuti pambuyo pa mutu motsatizana, mchira umakhala wotheka kwambiri. Analakwitsa, ndipo chinyengo chimene chili ndi dzina lake ndi mtundu wa chinyengo cha wotchova juga. Dongosolo la D’Alembert mu roulette linatchedwa dzina lake pambuyo pake, ndi otchova juga amene anali ndi chikhulupiriro chomwecho. Sanalipange ndipo mwina sakanalivomereza.
Kodi pali mitundu ina?
Contra-D’Alembert, yomwe ili pamwambapa, imachita ngati ParolinjiraParoliProgression yabwino: wirikizani mutapambana, bwererani poyambira mutaluza kapena mutapambana katatu motsatizana. Imatchedwanso: reverse Martingale.Werengani yonse → yofatsa. Osewera ena amawonjezera ma unit awiri pambuyo pa kuluza ndi kuchotsa imodzi pambuyo pa kupambana, zimene zimatsetsereka makwerero kulowera ku Martingale. Mitundu yonse ili ndi kutayika koyembekezekamasamuKutayika koyembekezekaMtengo woyembekezeka kuchulukitsa ndi ndalama zonse zobetchedwa; kuchuluka kwapakati kwa ndalama zotayika mu gawo la masewera kapena nthawi inayake.Werengani yonse → komweko pa unit iliyonse yobetchedwa.
Choyerekezera · D'Alembert
Magawo a masewera 2,000 a mabetcha a even-money kuyambira ndi ndalama zosewerera $1,000.
Betcha loyambira $10 · malire a tebulo $500 · kuzungulira 100 pa gawo lililonse
Kangati kuluza kotsatizana kumabwera
Betcha la even-money pa gudumu la ziro imodzi limaluza kuzungulira 19 mwa 37. Mzere uliwonse ndi kuthekera kwakuti kuzungulira kotsatizana kwa chiwerengero china konse kuluze, ndi zimene wosewera D’Alembert, amene amaonjeza betcha limodzi loyambira akaluza kulikonse, wataya pofika nthawi imeneyo.
| kuluza motsatizana | kuthekera | pafupifupi 1 mwa | zotayika mpaka pano | betcha lotsatira |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Kuthekera ndi 19/37 kuchulukitsidwa ndi kokha kamodzi pa kuluza kulikonse, kuwerengedwa kuchokera pa kuzungulira kumodzi kodziwika. Gawo lalitali la masewera lili ndi kuzungulira kwambiri kumene kuluza kotere kungayambire, choncho m’madzulo amodzi n’kotheka kwambiri kuposa zimene mzere umodzi ukusonyeza.
Mafunso
Ilibe kuphompho, zimene zimaipanga kukhala progression yolakwika yofatsa kwambiri. Si yotsika mtengo kuposa kubetcha mofanana; ndi yokwera mtengo pang’ono.
Malire a tebulotebuloMalire a tebuloBetcha lochepa kwambiri ndi lalikulu kwambiri lololedwa. Malire apamwamba ndiwo amaimitsa maprogression owirikiza.Werengani yonse → okha kapena ndalama zosewererandalamaNdalama zosewereraNdalama zonse zimene mwazisiyira masewera. Kusamalira ndalama zosewerera ndiko kusankha kuchuluka kwake komwe mungaike pachiopsezo pa betcha lililonse ndi pa gawo lililonse la masewera.Werengani yonse → zanu. Pa gawo lalitali la kuluza zimakwera mosalekeza.
Masamu Osangalatsa
Yesani nokha choyamba. Yankho lililonse labisika; litsegulireni mukakonzeka.
Mukusewera D’Alembert pa zofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse → kwa kuzungulira 50, kuyambira pa unitndalamaUnitNdalama zobetcha zoyambira zimene dongosolo kapena wosewera amagwiritsa ntchito. Maprogression amafotokozedwa mu ma unit kuti agwire ntchito pa tebulo lililonse.Werengani yonse → imodzi, ndipo simupambana konse betcha la unit imodzi (pambuyo pa kupambana kotere ndalama zobetcha sizikanakhala ndi potsikira). Mukumaliza ndi kuluza 27 ndi kupambana 23. Muli patsogolo kapena m’mbuyo ndi ma unit angati? Nanga ndi kuluza 29 ndi kupambana 21?
Onetsani yankho
Yankho Ma unit +13 ndi kuluza 27, ma unit −15 ndi 29. Kuzungulira kawiri mwa makumi asanu kupita mbali ina kumawononga ma unit 28.
Tchulani D kukhala kuluza kuchotsa kupambana. Zotsatira ndi (N − D²)/2 − D pa kuzungulira N. Ndi kuluza 27 ndi kupambana 23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Ndi 29 ndi 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Chifukwa chake lamuloli limagwira: ndalama zobetcha nthawi zonse ndi unit imodzi kuphatikiza kuluza mpaka pano kuchotsa kupambana mpaka pano. Kuluza kulikonse kumene kupambana kwa pambuyo pake kumafafaniza kumapanga awiri, kutaya s kenako kupambana s + 1, zimene zimapereka phindu la unit +1, monga tebulo pamwambapa likusonyezera. Pa kuzungulira N, awiri otere (N − D)/2 amapangidwa, a mtengo wa +(N − D)/2. Kuluza D kotsalako kunaikidwa pa ndalama zobetcha 1, 2 … D pokwera ndipo sikunafafanizidwe konse; kumawononga 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Pamodzi: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Bwalo ndilo nkhani yonse. Gawo la masewera lofanana limalipira theka la unit pa kuzungulira kulikonse, ndipo sitepe iliyonse kutali ndi kufanana imawononga kuposa yapitayo.
Mukusewera D’Alembert yotembenuzidwa pa zofiira kwa kuzungulira 100, kuyambira pa unit imodzi, ndipo palibe betcha la unit imodzi limene limaluza. Mukumaliza ndi kupambana 52 ndi kuluza 48. Muli pati? Nanga ndi kupambana 60 ndi kuluza 40?
Onetsani yankho
Yankho Ma unit −38 ndi kupambana 52, +170 ndi 60. Kupambana kochepa kuposa kuluza kumataya; kupambana kochuluka kwambiri kokha ndiko kumalipira.
Tchulani D kukhala kupambana kuchotsa kuluza. Zotsatira ndi (D² − N)/2 + D pa kuzungulira N.
Kupambana 52 ndi kuluza 48: D = 4, choncho (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Kupambana 60 ndi kuluza 40: D = 20, choncho (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Chifukwa chake: kupambana kulikonse kumene kuluza kwa pambuyo pake kumafafaniza kumapanga awiri, kupambana pa s kenako kutaya pa s + 1, zimene zimapereka −1. Kupambana D kotsalako kunaikidwa pa ndalama zobetcha 1, 2 … D pokwera ndipo sikufafanizidwa konse; kumabweretsa D(D + 1)/2. Pa kuzungulira N, awiri (N − D)/2 amapangidwa, choncho chiwerengero chonse ndi D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ndi lamulo la D’Alembert yoyambirira ndi zizindikiro zotembenuzidwa: kumeneko, kufanana kumapambana theka la unit pa kuzungulira kulikonse ndipo kusafanana kumalangidwa; kuno, kufanana kumawononga theka la unit pa kuzungulira kulikonse ndipo kusafanana kumapatsidwa mphoto.
Nthabwala yopumitsa
Linatchedwa dzina la katswiri wa masamu amene analakwitsa za ndalama yachitsulo.
Magwero
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.