Kuthekera mu Roulette
Kuthekera kulikonse mu roulette ndi chiwerengero cha tibowo kugawa ndi 37.

p = manambala ophimbidwa / 37. Nambala imodzi: 2.70%. Khumi ndi zisanu ndi zitatu: 48.65%. Kuthekera kwa zotsatizana zinazake ndi kuchulukitsa kuthekera kwa kuzungulira kulikonse.
Kuzungulira kumodzi
Chilichonse mwa tibowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse → 37 chili ndi kuthekera kofanana, choncho mwayi wopambana mu roulette pa kuzungulira kumodzi ndi nkhani yowerenga basi. Betcha la manambala anayi limapambana 4/37 ya nthawi, pafupifupi 10.8%. Palibenso china pa kuthekeramasamuKuthekeraMwayi wa zotsatira, kuchokera 0 mpaka 1 kapena 0% mpaka 100%. Nambala imodzi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Werengani yonse → kwa kuzungulira kumodzi kupatula chimenecho, n’chifukwa chake masewera onse angathe kuwerengedwa pa kapepala kakang’ono.
Kuzungulira kangapo
Kuzungulira kulikonse n’kodziyimira payokha, choncho kuthekera kwa zotsatizana kumachulukitsidwa. ZofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse → ziwiri motsatizana: (18/37)² = 23.7%. Zofiira kenako zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1.3%. Khumi ndi zisanu ndi ziwiri kawiri motsatizana: (1/37)² = 0.073%, pafupifupi kamodzi pa 1,369. Dongosolo limakhala lofunika pa zotsatizana zinazake, osati pa chiwerengero: “zofiira kenako zakudabetchaZakudaBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 akuda. Mu Chifalansa: noir.Werengani yonse →” ndi 25.0% koma “chofiira chimodzi ndi chakuda chimodzi pa kuzungulira kawiri, mwa dongosolo lililonse” ndi 50.0%.
Kamodzi kokha pang’ono
Gwiritsani ntchito chotsalira (complement). Mwayi wosagunda konse pa straight upbetchaStraight upNambala imodzi, amalipira 35:1.Werengani yonse → pa kuzungulira 37 ndi (36/37)³⁷ = 36.3%, choncho mwayi wogunda kamodzi kokha pang’ono ndi 63.7%, osati “kutsimikizika” kumene osewera ambiri amayembekezera kuchokera ku mwayi 37 wa 1 pa 37. Kuwerengera komweko kumati nambala ili ndi mwayi wa pafupifupi 1 pa 3 woti isatuluke konse pa kuzungulira 37, n’chifukwa chake bolodi la zotsatira nthawi zonse limaonetsa manambala angapo “ozizira”.
Nthawi yodikira yoyembekezeka
Pa avareji nambala ya straight up imatuluka kamodzi pa kuzungulira 37 kulikonse, koma kudikira kumasinthasintha kwambiri: kudikira kwapakati (median) ndi pafupifupi kuzungulira 25 (theka la nthawi imatuluka msanga) ndipo kudikira kumodzi pa makumi awiri kumapitirira kuzungulira 110. Nthawi zodikira za njira ya geometric zili ndi mchira wautali, ndipo wosewera amene “akudziwa” kuti nambala yafika nthawi yake pambuyo pa kuzungulira 60 akufotokoza chinthu chimene chimachitika kamodzi pa kasanu.
Zolakwa zofala
Kuphatikiza kuthekera kwa zochitika zimene zingachitike zonse ziwiri (zofiira kapena osakhala awiriawiri si 36/37; ndi 26/37, chifukwa manambala khumi ali zonse ziwiri). Kuchulukitsa zochitika za pa kuzungulira komweko (zofiira ndi osakhala awiriawiri pa kuzungulira kumodzi ndi 10/37, osati 18/37 × 18/37). Kuona kuzungulira kwakale ngati gawo la zotsatizana zimene mukubetchera tsopano: pambuyo pa zofiira khumi, mwayi wa chakhumi ndi chimodzi ndi 18/37, osati (18/37)¹¹.
Kodi mwayi (odds) mu roulette ndi wotani, ndipo umasiyana bwanji ndi kuthekera?
Makasino amatchula malipirondalamaMalipiroZimene betcha lopambana limabweza, zotchulidwa ngati “X ku 1” kuwonjezera pa ndalama zobetcha zobwezedwa.Werengani yonse → ngati mwayi (odds). Nambala imodzi imapambana ndi kuthekera kwa 1/37, choncho mwayi wopambana mu roulette pa nambala imodzi ndi 36 ku 1 wotsutsana nanu. Malipiro a 35 ku 1 choncho ndi ochepa ndi unitndalamaUnitNdalama zobetcha zoyambira zimene dongosolo kapena wosewera amagwiritsa ntchito. Maprogression amafotokozedwa mu ma unit kuti agwire ntchito pa tebulo lililonse.Werengani yonse → imodzi, ndipo ichi ndicho phindu la kasinomasamuPhindu la kasinoGawo la ndalama zobetcha zilizonse limene kasino imasunga pa avareji: 2.70% mu roulette ya ku Ulaya.Werengani yonse → m’mawonekedwe ake oyambirira. Kusintha: mwayi wotsutsa = (1 − p)/p; kuthekera = 1/(mwayi + 1).
Fomula
Mafunso
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0.073%.
36/37 = 97.3%. Ziro ndiyo yotsala.
Zonse 37 ndi 1/37. Khumi ndi zisanu ndi ziwiri ndiyo nambala yobetchedwa kwambiri, ndipo chimenecho ndi chowonadi chokhudza anthu.
Masamu Osangalatsa
Yesani nokha choyamba. Yankho lililonse labisika; litsegulireni mukakonzeka.
Mukubetcha pa zofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse →, kuzungulira pambuyo pa kuzungulira. Kodi kuthekera kwakuti kupambana kwanu kwachisanu kubwere pa kuzungulira kwachisanu ndi chitatu ndendende ndi kotani? Nanga kuti mukhale ndi kupambana kasanu m’kuzungulira kasanu ndi katatu koyamba?
Onetsani yankho
Yankho 12.9%, pafupifupi 1 pa 8, pa kupambana kwachisanu pa kuzungulira kwachisanu ndi chitatu. 33.4% pa kupambana kasanu pofika nthawi imeneyo.
Kupambana kwachisanu pa kuzungulira kwachisanu ndi chitatu kumatanthauza zinthu ziwiri: kuzungulira kwachisanu ndi chitatu kumapambana, ndipo kuzungulira kasanu ndi kawiri koyamba kuli ndi kupambana kanayi ndendende ndi kuluza katatu, motsatana mwanjira iliyonse. Pali njira 35 zoikira kupambana kanayi m’kuzungulira kasanu ndi kawiri.
Choncho kuthekera ndi 35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0.02725 × 0.1354 = 12.9%.
Pa kupambana kasanu pofika kuzungulira kwachisanu ndi chitatu, onjezerani mawu ofanana a kupambana kwachisanu pa kuzungulira kwachisanu, kwachisanu ndi chimodzi ndi kwachisanu ndi chiwiri: 2.7% + 7.0% + 10.8% + 12.9% = 33.4%. Akatswiri a ziwerengero amatcha zimenezi negative binomial distribution: kuchuluka kwa kuyesa kumene chiwerengero chokhazikika cha kukwaniritsa chimafuna. Taylor (2021) amachita funso lomwelo pa gudumu la ku America, 12.2%.
Nthabwala yopumitsa

Werengani tibowo. Gawani ndi 37. Chulukitsani pa zotsatizana. Mwatha.
Magwero
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.