Chinyengo cha Wotchova Juga

Chinyengocho

Ngati zofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse → zatuluka ka khumi, osewera ambiri amaganiza kuti zakudabetchaZakudaBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 akuda. Mu Chifalansa: noir.Werengani yonse → “zafika nthawi yake” ndipo amabetcha moteremo. Ena amaona kuti zofiira “zikutentha” ndipo amabetcha zimenezo. Onse akuganiza kuchokera ku zotsatizana zimene zatha kale kupita ku kuzungulira kumene sikunachitike. MpirazipangizoMpiraMpira waung’ono umene umaponyedwa mu njira motsutsana ndi rotor. Mipira yamakono ndi ya ivorine kapena Teflon, 18–21 mm.Werengani yonse → sudziwa kuti kuzungulira khumi komaliza kunali kotani; tibowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse → n’tofanana kukula monga mmene tinalili ola lapitalo; kuthekeramasamuKuthekeraMwayi wa zotsatira, kuchokera 0 mpaka 1 kapena 0% mpaka 100%. Nambala imodzi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Werengani yonse → kwa zakuda ndi 18/37 monga mmene kwakhalira nthawi zonse.

Nthano: Manambala Ndi Oyenera Kutuluka

N’chifukwa chiyani kumamveka ngati koona

Pa nthawi yayitali magawo a zofiira ndi zakuda amayandikiradi 18/37 iliyonse. Lamulo la manambala akuluakulumasamuLamulo la manambala akuluakuluAvareji ya zotsatira zodziyimira payokha imayandikira mtengo woyembekezeka pamene chiwerengero cha mayesero chikukula.Werengani yonse → limatsimikiza zimenezo. Koma kuyandikira kumachitika mwa kusungunula, osati mwa kukonza: pambuyo pa kuzungulira kwina 1,000 zofiira khumi zowonjezerazo ndi kachinthu kakang’ono m’gawo, osati chifukwa zakuda zinagwira koma chifukwa chitsanzo chinakula. Palibe njira imene imapangitsa zakuda kukhala zotheka kwambiri, ndipo lamulo la manambala akuluakulu silifuna njira yotere.

Monte Carlo, 18 August 1913

Zakuda zinatuluka ka 26 motsatizana pa tebulo lina mu Casino de Monte-Carlo. Kuyambira pa zakuda pafupifupi za khumi ndi zisanu, osewera anaunjikana pa zofiira, akuwirikiza ndi kuwirikizanso, kuzungulira kulikonse “kotsimikizika kwambiri” kuposa koyamba. Kasino inapambana mamiliyoni a ma franc. Zotsatizanazo zinali ndi kuthekera kwa 1 pa 137 miliyoni kuchokera pa zakuda zoyamba, ndipo kuthekera koti zichitike pamapeto pake kwinakwake m’makasino a padziko lonse kunali kwenikweni kumodzi. Ichi ndicho chifukwa chake chinyengo cha wotchova juga chimatchedwanso chinyengo cha Monte Carlo.

Casino de Monte-Carlo

Dzanja lotentha (hot hand)

Kuthandizira mtundu chifukwa ukutsatizana ndi kulakwa komweko kotembenuzidwa: zotsatizana zikuyembekezeka kupitirira m’malo motha. Akatswiri a maganizo amazitcha dzanja lotenthanthanoDzanja lotenthaChikhulupiriro chakuti kupambana motsatizana, kapena zotsatira zimodzimodzi motsatizana, kumapangitsa china kukhala chotheka kwambiri. Pa gudumu ndi chinyengo cha wotchova juga chotembenuzidwa.Werengani yonse →, potsatira kafukufuku wa 1985 wa Gilovich, Vallone ndi Tversky amene anafufuza zotsatizana pa kuponya mpira wa basketball ndipo sanapeze zina kupatula za mwangozi. Mu 2018 Miller ndi Sanjurjo anaonetsa kuti mayesowo anali opendekeka: m’mbiri yaifupi, gawo la kugunda pambuyo pa kugunda limatuluka pansi pa mlingo wonse wa woponya pa avareji, choncho wosewera wopanda dzanja lotentha konse amaoneka wozizira pang’ono. Atakonzedwa, zambiri zomwezo zimaonetsa dzanja lotentha pang’ono. Munthu angathe kutentha; gudumu lilibe mkhalidwe woti likhalemo. Osewera ena amakhulupirira zonse ziwiri nthawi imodzi, kuti zotsatizana zimapitirira mpaka “zitalika kwambiri” kenako zimatha. Pa gudumu lachilungamo mtundu uliwonse wa chikhulupiriro uli ndi mtengo woyembekezekamasamuMtengo woyembekezekaZotsatira zapakati pa betcha lililonse pa nthawi yayitali. −1/37 ya ndalama zobetcha pa betcha lililonse la ku Ulaya wamba.Werengani yonse → wofanana ndi kusankha mtundu poponya ndalama: −2.70% ya ndalama zobetcha.

Kuthekera kwa Zotsatizana mu Roulette

Pa tebulo lenileni

Croson ndi Sundali (2005) anaonera maola 18 a vidiyo ya chitetezo kuchokera pa tebulo limodzi la zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse → ziwiri m’kasino yaikulu ku Reno: osewera 139 akuika mabetcha 24,131. Pa mabetcha a even-moneybetchaBetcha la even-moneyZofiira/zakuda, osakhala awiriawiri/awiriawiri, okwera/otsika. Manambala 18, amalipira 1:1.Werengani yonse →, osewera anali ogawanika pafupifupi mofanana pakati pa kutsatira zotsatizana zazifupi ndi kuzitsutsa. Pambuyo pa zisanu za mtundu umodzi motsatizana anapendekera motsutsana ndi zotsatizanazo, ndipo pambuyo pa zisanu ndi chimodzi kapena kuposa, 85% ya mabetcha awo anali mbali ina. Osewera omwewo anaonetsa dzanja lotentha pa iwo eni: pambuyo popambana pa manambala anaphimba manambala 13.6 pa kuzungulira kotsatira pa avareji, poyerekeza ndi 9.2 pambuyo poluza. Gudumu lawo silinaonetse chizindikiro cha kukondera, choncho palibe chimene chinasintha zimene aliyense wa iwo akanayembekezera.

Kunja kwa kasino

Kukoka komweko kumaonekera kumene zisankho zenizeni zimapangidwa. Clotfelter ndi Cook (1993) anatsatira masewera a manambala a tsiku ndi tsiku a Maryland: ndalama zobetchedwa pa nambala zinatsika kwambiri itangotulutsidwa ndipo zinatenga miyezi kuti zibwerere, ngakhale kuti kutulutsa kulibe kukumbukira. Chen, Moskowitz ndi Shue (2016) anachipeza pakati pa akatswiri. Oweruza a milandu yopempha chitetezo (asylum) ku United States anali ndi mwayi wokwera mpaka 3.3 percentage points wokana mlandu ngati anavomereza wapitawo. Oyimbira a baseball anali ndi mwayi wotsika ndi 1.5 points woyimba strike atangoyimba ina, ndipo kuposa kuwirikiza kawiri pa maponyedwe a mkangano. M’kuyesa kwa m’munda ndi akuluakulu a ngongole olipidwa malipiro osasintha, mpaka 9% ya zisankho zinatembenuzidwa motere. Milanduyo inabwera mwachisawawa, choncho chisankho chomaliza sichinanene kanthu za chotsatira, monga momwe kuzungulira komaliza sikunena kanthu za kotsatira.

Chinyengo cha wotchova juga chotembenuzidwa

Katswiri wa nzeru Ian Hacking (1987) anatchula mtundu wachitatu. Munthu walowa m’chipinda, waona madayisi awiri akugwera pa sikisi ziwiri ndipo wamaliza kuti ayenera kuti aponyedwa kale kambirimbiri. Kuponya kulikonse kuli ndi mwayi wofanana wotuluka sikisi ziwiri, koyamba madzulo kapena ka chikwi, choncho chooneka chimenecho sichinena kanthu za kutalika kwa nthawi imene masewera akhala akuchitika. Mu roulette ndi wosewera amene afika pa bolodi loonetsa zofiira zisanu ndi zitatu ndipo asankha kuti tebulo liyenera kuti lakhala likuzungulira kwa maola kuti zichitike. Chinyengo chamba chimawerenga zakale mu kuzungulira kotsatira; ichi chimawerenga chooneka chosowa m’zakale zimene palibe anaziona.

Katswiri wa maganizo amene anachikhulupirira

Chinyengochi chakhala ndi oteteza ophunzira. Katswiri wa maganizo wa ku Germany Karl Marbe anafufuza m’mabuku anayi olembera obadwa, iliyonse ya obadwa 49,152, anapeza kuti zotsatizana zazitali kwambiri za anyamata kapena za atsikana motsatizana zinali 17, ndipo anamaliza kuti zotsatizana zazitali ndi zosowa kuposa mmene mwangozi kumalolera, kotero kuti zotsatizana zimapangitsa zotsatira zina kukhala zotheka kwambiri. Mwangozi kokha kumanena mosiyana: pa obadwa 196,608 zotsatizana za 17 kapena kuposa zimaonekera pafupifupi kanayi pa kasanu. Marbe anapeza ndendende mmene zotsatizana zachisawawa zimaonekera. Epstein (2013) amafotokozanso nkhaniyi; Kuthekera kwa Zotsatizana mu Roulette imapereka mtundu wa roulette.

Kumene chinyengo sichigwira ntchito

Ngati gudumu likanakhala lokondera mwakuthupi, kuzungulira kwakale kukanakhala ndi chidziwitso, chifukwa kukanakhala umboni wokhudza tibowo osati wokhudza mwayi. Imeneyo ndi nkhani ya Labu ya Roulette, ndipo imafuna kuzungulira masauzande kuchokera pa gudumu limodzi lodziwika kuti inene chilichonse. Pa zofiira khumi motsatizana pa gudumu losadziwika, kufotokoza kwa kukondera n’kosatheka kwambiri kuposa kwa mwangozi.

Kukula kwa Chitsanzo

Mafunso