Masamu · Mfundo yaikulu · mphindi 7

Mtengo Woyembekezeka mu Roulette

Mtengo woyembekezeka mu roulette ndi zotsatira za avareji za betcha mukanatha kulibwereza kosatha. Mu roulette ya ku Ulaya ndi wofanana pa betcha lililonse lokhazikika: mumataya 1/37 ya ndalama zobetcha zilizonse, pa avareji, pa kuzungulira kulikonse.

M’mawu osavuta

Taganizirani kuika betcha lomwelo la $10 pa zofiira nthawi miliyoni imodzi. Mazungulidwe ena amapambana $10, ena amataya $10. Phatikizani zotsatira zonse ndi kugawa ndi miliyoni: mumapeza pafupifupi −$0.27. Chiwerengero chimenecho ndi mtengo woyembekezeka wa betcha la roulette. Si zimene zimachitika pa kuzungulira kulikonse; ndi avareji ya nthawi yaitali pa kuzungulira kulikonse.

Yankho lachiduleEV = kuthekera kopambana × ndalama zopambanidwa − kuthekera kotaya × ndalama zotayika. Pa betcha lililonse lokhazikika la roulette zimenezo zimafika pa −2.70% ya ndalama zobetcha.

Fomula ya EV ya betcha la roulette

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = manambala ophimbidwa · S = ndalama zobetcha

Lowetsani lamulo la malipiro a roulette, 36/n − 1, ndipo n imachotsedwa. Imeneyo ndi nkhani yonse ya phindu la kasino m’mzere umodzi:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
   = S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
   = −S/37

Yesani: chowerengera mtengo woyembekezeka wa roulette

Sankhani kuti betcha limaphimba manambala angati. Kuthekera ndi malipiro zimasintha; mtengo woyembekezeka susintha.

nambala 1 yophimbidwa · limalipira 35:1ndalama zobetcha $10
p(kupambana)1/37 = 2.70%
kupambana kumalipira+$350
kuluza kumawononga−$10
EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10
mtengo woyembekezeka−$0.27 pa kuzungulira kulikonse · −2.70%

Momwe zimaonekera pakapita nthawi

Zotsatira za avareji pa kuzungulira kulikonse kwa betcha la $10 pa zofiira, pamene mazungulidwe akuchuluka. Poyamba, mwayi ndiwo umalamulira; avareji yopitirira imakhazikika kulowera ku −$0.27 pamene chitsanzo chikukula. Uku ndiko kuyandikira kwa nthawi yaitali kumene kasino imadalira.

EV −$0.27kuzungulira 1kuzungulira 2,000
Kuzungulira pambuyo pa kuzungulira, avareji yopitirira imasiya kusinthasintha ndipo imakhazikika pansi pang’ono pa ziro.

Maganizo olakwika ofala

“EV yotayika imatanthauza kuti ndidzataya pa gawo lililonse.”
Ayi. Imatanthauza kuti avareji ya magawo ambiri ndi kutaya. Magawo amodzimodzi amasiyana kwambiri, makamaka pa mabetcha a kusinthasintha kwakukulu ngati straight up.
“Kasino imafunika nthawi yaitali kuti ipambane.”
Phindu la kasino limagwira ntchito pa kuzungulira kulikonse; chimene nthawi yaitali imachita ndi kupangitsa zotsatira kudziwikiratu. Pa gawo limodzi, mwayi ndi mphamvu yaikulu.
“Mabetcha ena ali ndi EV yabwino kuposa ena.”
Osati mu roulette ya ku Ulaya, kupatula chimodzi: pansi pa la partage kapena en prison, mabetcha a even-money ali ndi theka la phindu la kasino lanthawi zonse.

Nthabwala yopumitsa

Osati zimene zimachitika pa kuzungulira kumodzi. Avareji ya kuzungulira konse.

Osati zimene zimachitika pa kuzungulira kumodzi. Avareji ya kuzungulira konse.