Nthano · Nthano · mphindi 7

Nthano: Njira ya Roulette Imene Imapambana Nthawi Zonse

“Ndili ndi dongosolo limene limapambana 80% ya nthawi.” Mwina muli nalo. Komabe limataya ndalama.

Yankho lalifupi

Dongosolo lingapangitse magawo opambana kukhala ochuluka. Silingapangitse mtengo woyembekezeka kukhala wabwino, chifukwa betcha lililonse limene limaika ndi −1/37 ya ndalama zake zobetcha ndipo mitengo yoyembekezeka imawonjezerana. Madongosolo amene amapambana kawirikawiri ndi amene amataya zambiri akataya.

magawo a Martingale ali m’phindu
≈ 80% (afupiafupi)
zotsatira za avareji za Martingale
zotayika
EV ya dongosolo lililonse
−2.70% ya ndalama zonse zobetchedwa
chigamulo
nthano

Zimene zimanenedwa

Chikhulupiriro: kwinakwake kuli njira ya roulette imene imapambana nthawi zonse, dongosolo la kusintha ndalama zobetcha potengera zotsatira zam’mbuyo limene limasandutsa roulette kukhala masewera opambana. Umboni woperekedwa: magawo opambana motsatizana, kanema wonena za momwe mungapambanire roulette nthawi zonse, umboni wa munthu, spreadsheet ya sabata yamwayi. Zonenazo nthawi zambiri n’zoona mtima; munthuyo amazikhulupirira chifukwa zakhala zikugwira ntchito.

Chifukwa chake n’zolakwika, m’mzere umodzi

Mitengo yoyembekezekamasamuMtengo woyembekezekaZotsatira zapakati pa betcha lililonse pa nthawi yayitali. −1/37 ya ndalama zobetcha pa betcha lililonse la ku Ulaya wamba.Werengani yonse → imawonjezerana. Ngati betcha lililonse lili ndi EV = −1/37 ya ndalama zake zobetcha, ndondomeko iliyonse ya mabetcha ili ndi EV = −1/37 ya zonse zobetchedwa, kaya ndi lamulo lanji limene linasankha ndalamazo. Dongosolo ndi lamulo losankhira ndalama zobetcha. Choncho dongosolo lililonse lili ndi EV = −1/37 ya ndalama zonse zobetchedwandalamaNdalama zonse zobetchedwaNdalama zonse zobetchedwa mu gawo la masewera kapena nthawi inayake, kuphatikizapo ndalama zopambana zobetchedwanso. Zimatchedwanso: handle, action.Werengani yonse →. Iyi ndi theorem (Doob ndi Halmos anaitsimikizira m’ma 1930; Thorp 1969 akufotokoza mikhalidwe yake), ndipo ilibe zosiyana za malamulo anzeru. Mkhalidwe umodzi woyenera kudziwa ndi betcha locheperako: chitsanzo cha Thorp chimabetcha $1,000 pa zofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse →, kenako masenti 90, kenako masenti 9 ndi zina zotero, kuchepa kosatha. Ndi mwayi wa 18/37 betcha loyamba limapambana ndipo wosewera amakhalabe patsogolo kwamuyaya, ngakhale zotsatira zoyembekezeka zidakali −1/37 ya zonse zobetchedwa. Malire ochepa a tebulo lenileni amaletsa zimenezo, ndipo pamodzi nazo chiyembekezo chilichonse chokhala patsogolo pa nthawi yaitali.

Kuyandikira pa Nthawi Yayitali: Lamulo la Manambala Akuluakulu mu Roulette

Chifukwa chake chimaoneka ngati chikugwira ntchito

MaprogressionnjiraProgressionLamulo lililonse limene limasintha ndalama zobetcha potengera zotsatira zakale. Maprogression olakwika amazikweza pambuyo poluza, abwino pambuyo popambana.Werengani yonse → olakwika amapangitsa magawo opambana kukhala ochuluka. MartingalenjiraMartingaleProgression yowirikiza betcha pambuyo poluza kulikonse. Onani gawo la Njira kuti mudziwe zimene imachita ndi zimene siimachita.Werengani yonse → kuyambira pa $10 ndi malire a $500 imathetsa pafupifupi 80% ya magawo a mazungulidwe 100 ili patsogolo ndi ma unitndalamaUnitNdalama zobetcha zoyambira zimene dongosolo kapena wosewera amagwiritsa ntchito. Maprogression amafotokozedwa mu ma unit kuti agwire ntchito pa tebulo lililonse.Werengani yonse → ochepa. Wosewera amene amaigwiritsa ntchito kwa magawo makumi awiri amapambana khumi ndi asanu ndi limodzi ndipo amakumbukira zimenezo. Magawo anayi oluza aliyense amataya kuposa zimene magawo khumi opambana amapanga, ndipo masamu a magawo makumi awiri ndi otayika. Dongosolo silinasinthe avareji; lasuntha kutayika kupita m’magawo ochepa, akuluakulu, kumene n’kosavuta kuzitcha tsoka.

Martingale, maziko a $10, malire a $500, mazungulidwe 100 (zoyerekezedwa)
magawo ali m’phindu
≈ 78%
gawo lopambana lanthawi zonse
≈ +$40
gawo loluza lanthawi zonse
≈ −$500
zotsatira za avareji pa magawo onse
≈ −$75
0250≈ −$500
Magawo anayi oluza pa makumi awiri amawononga pafupifupi $2,000. Magawo khumi ndi asanu ndi limodzi opambana amapanga pafupifupi $640. Dongosolo “limagwira ntchito” 80% ya nthawi.

Mayeso amene aliyense angachite

Choyerekezera Njira za Roulette pa tsamba lino chimayendetsa magawo 10,000 a dongosolo lililonse, kapena khodi yanu, mu sekondi imodzi. Chikhazikitseni pa dongosolo limene mumakhulupirira ndipo werengani avareji. Avareji ikanakhala yabwino pa makonzedwe aliwonse, tsamba lino likananena choncho. Makonzedwe aliwonse, dongosolo lililonse, malire a tebulotebuloMalire a tebuloBetcha lochepa kwambiri ndi lalikulu kwambiri lololedwa. Malire apamwamba ndiwo amaimitsa maprogression owirikiza.Werengani yonse → aliwonse amapereka avareji ya −2.70% ya ndalama zonse zobetchedwa kuphatikiza phokoso. Umboni wa anthu ndi zitsanzo za munthu mmodzi; choyerekezera ndi zitsanzo za zikwi khumi.

Malire a Tebulo la Roulette

Dongosolo limene silingaluze

Mu 1997 wolemba za poker Mike Caro anaika dongosolo la roulette ngati nthabwala, ndipo Gambling Times inalisindikizanso mu 2001. Ndi mndandanda wa mabetcha oyenera kupewa: osabetcha zofiira kapena zakudabetchaZakudaBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 akuda. Mu Chifalansa: noir.Werengani yonse →, osakhala awiriawiri kapena awiriawiri, kapena zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse →; osabetcha manambala ofiira osakhala awiriawiri kapena akuda awiriawiri; ndipo palibe chilichonse pa 30, kapena pa mzere wautali wa tibowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse → kuchokera pa 11 molunjika ngati wotchi mpaka 14 pa gudumu la ku America. Phatikizani malamulowo ndipo palibe nambala imene yatsala. Tibowo tokha tomwe tili kunja kwa mzerewo ndi 0, 28, 9, 26, 30 ndi 2; 30 yaletsedwa ndi dzina, ndipo zotsalazo ndi ziro, awiriawiri ndi zakuda, kapena osakhala awiriawiri ndi zofiira. Wosewera amene amatsatira dongosololi sabetcha konse ndipo saluza konse. Phindu lake ndi ziro, ndipo ndi dongosolo lokhalo la roulette loona mtima za momwe limafikira kumeneko.

Potsatira dongosolo limene limaletsa betcha lililonse, wosewera mmodzi sabetcha chipi ngakhale chimodzi.

Gudumu ndi Malamulo a Roulette ya ku America

Madongosolo okhala ndi mayina, mzere umodzi lililonse

Madongosolo ogulitsidwa ndi dzina, kapena ngati njira yopambanira roulette, sali osiyana. Lililonse ndi gulu la mabetcha, ndipo betcha lililonse limalipira gudumu 2.70% yake. Bollman (2024) akufufuza angapo pa gudumu la ku America, kumene lililonse limawononga 5.26%; apa ali pa gudumu la ku Ulaya.

dongosolozimene limachitazimene limachitadi
Bohemia (Cuba, 1959)unit 1 pa zakuda ndi 1 pa mzati wachitatu, umene uli ndi manambala akuda anayi okhalimatha pa +3, +1, 0 kapena −2 ma unit; chipi chilichonse chimawonongabe 2.70%
Njoka yofiirama straight up pa manambala ofiira 12 amene amapindikapindika pa dongosolo la mabetchamanambala 12 pa 37: imodzi imapambana pa 32% ya mazungulidwe; zina zonse zimaluza
Shotwellsix line ndi ma straight up anayi osankhidwa kuti akhale pafupi pa gudumumanambala 10 pa 37, 27% ya mazungulidwe, komabe 2.70%
Makwerero a $450nambala imodzi: $5 kwa mazungulidwe 20, $10 kwa 20, $15 kwa 10imaphonya mazungulidwe onse 50 ndi kutaya $450 pafupifupi 25% ya nthawi
Kryptoslimalemba mazungulidwe asanu ndi limodzi ngati okwera kapena otsika, osakhala awiriawiri kapena awiriawiri, zofiira kapena zakuda, ndipo limayendetsa ma Martingale atatu nthawi imodzi, imodzi pa banja lililonse la mabetcha a even-moneyndalama zobetcha kuwirikiza katatu; iliyonse mwa zitatuzo imaluza kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana pafupifupi kamodzi pa mayesero 55 ndipo imawononga ma unit 63
Famous Las Vegas Gambling Systems (kabuku)limabetcha theka limene laphonya kasanu motsatizana, kapena mzati umene sunatuluke kwa mazungulidwe asanu ndi awirikudikira sikusintha kalikonse; gudumu silikumbukira
“Mazungulidwe 19 amapangitsa kukhala 50–50”betchani nambala imodzi nthawi 191 − (36/37)¹⁹ = 41%, osati 50%

Mtundu woona mtima

Madongosolo amasintha maonekedwe a gawo la masewera: kangati mumapambana, kukula kwa kupambana, ndi kuipa kwa zotsatira zoipa kwambiri. Zimenezo ndi zosankha zenizeni ndipo wosewera angakonde maonekedwe amodzi kuposa ena. Chimene madongosolo sasintha ndi mtengo, umene ndi 2.70% ya chilichonse chobetchedwa, ndipo chifukwa maprogression amabetcha zambiri kuposa kubetcha mofanananjiraKubetcha mofananaKubetcha ndalama zofanana pa kuzungulira kulikonse. Muyeso umene progression iliyonse imayerekezeredwa nawo.Werengani yonse →, amalipira zambiri za mtengowo.

Njira ya Roulette ya Kubetcha Mofanana

Mafunso

Koma dongosolo langa lapambana kwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi.

Miyezi isanu ndi umodzi ya magawo a sabata iliyonse ndi pafupifupi magawo 25. Martingale imapambana 80% ya amenewo. Magawo oluza akubwera, ndipo ndi akuluakulu.

Nanga bwanji madongosolo amene amasiya ali patsogolo?

Lamulo losiya limachepetsa ndalama zonse zobetchedwa ndipo choncho limachepetsa kutayika koyembekezekamasamuKutayika koyembekezekaMtengo woyembekezeka kuchulukitsa ndi ndalama zonse zobetchedwa; kuchuluka kwapakati kwa ndalama zotayika mu gawo la masewera kapena nthawi inayake.Werengani yonse →. Silipangitsa kukhala kwabwino.

Kodi pali chosiyana: njira ya roulette imene imagwira ntchito?

Osati pa gudumu lachilungamo. Pa gudumu lokonderalabuGudumu lokonderaGudumu limene zolakwika zake zakuthupi zimapangitsa tibowo tina kukhala ndi kuthekera kopitirira 1/37. Ndi losowa, ndipo limadziwika pokhapokha ndi kuzungulira masauzande ambiri kolembedwa.Werengani yonse →, limene ndi vuto la sayansi ya zinthu, osati dongosolo.

Masamu Osangalatsa

Yesani nokha choyamba. Yankho lililonse labisika; litsegulireni mukakonzeka.

  1. Dongosolo la nthabwala la Mike Caro la 1997 la gudumu la ku America limaletsa zofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse → ndi zakudabetchaZakudaBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 akuda. Mu Chifalansa: noir.Werengani yonse →, osakhala awiriawiri ndi awiriawiri, ndi zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse →; manambala ofiira osakhala awiriawiri ndi akuda awiriawiri; nambala 30; ndi kabowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse → kalikonse m’zotsatizana kuyambira 11 kuzungulira motsatira wotchi mpaka 14. Gwiritsani ntchito malamulowo limodzi limodzi. Ndi manambala ati amene atsala oti mubetche?

    Onetsani yankho

    Yankho Palibe. Dongosololi silibetcha konse, choncho phindu la kasino lake ndi ziro ndendende.

    Kuletsa zofiira, zakuda, osakhala awiriawiri, awiriawiri ndi ziro kumasiya manambala amodzi amodzi ndi magulu ang’onoang’ono pakati pa 1 mpaka 36.

    Palibe ofiira osakhala awiriawiri ndi palibe akuda awiriawiri kumasiya ofiira awiriawiri (12, 14, 16, 18, 30, 32, 34, 36) ndi akuda osakhala awiriawiri (11, 13, 15, 17, 29, 31, 33, 35): manambala khumi ndi asanu ndi limodzi. Kuletsa 30 kumasiya khumi ndi asanu.

    Pa gudumu la ku America zotsatizana kuyambira 11 motsatira wotchi mpaka 14 zimaphimba tibowo 32 mwa 38. Tibowo tisanu ndi tumodzi tokhala kunja kwake ndi 0, 28, 9, 26, 30 ndi 2. Manambala onse khumi ndi asanu otsala ali mkati mwa zotsatizanazo, choncho lamulo lomaliza limawachotsanso. Dongosolo limene silibetcha konse ndilo lokhalo limene siliuza konse, ndipo imeneyo inali mfundo ya Caro.

  2. Kryptos imayendetsa ma MartingalenjiraMartingaleProgression yowirikiza betcha pambuyo poluza kulikonse. Onani gawo la Njira kuti mudziwe zimene imachita ndi zimene siimachita.Werengani yonse → atatu nthawi imodzi, imodzi pa awiri aliwonse a mabetcha a even-moneybetchaBetcha la even-moneyZofiira/zakuda, osakhala awiriawiri/awiriawiri, okwera/otsika. Manambala 18, amalipira 1:1.Werengani yonse → (okwera kapena otsika, osakhala awiriawiri kapena awiriawiri, zofiira kapena zakuda), ndi ndalama zobetcha 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 ndi kusiya pambuyo pa kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi. Tengani imodzi mwa itatuyo pa gudumu la ku Ulaya. Kodi imataya mabetcha onse asanu ndi limodzi kangati, cycle imodzi imapeza zingati pa avareji, ndipo limenelo ndi gawo lotani la ndalama zobetchedwa?

    Onetsani yankho

    Yankho Imataya onse asanu ndi limodzi pafupifupi kamodzi pa ma cycle 55, 1.83% ya nthawi, ndipo zimenezo zimawononga ma unitndalamaUnitNdalama zobetcha zoyambira zimene dongosolo kapena wosewera amagwiritsa ntchito. Maprogression amafotokozedwa mu ma unit kuti agwire ntchito pa tebulo lililonse.Werengani yonse → 63. Pa avareji cycle imataya pafupifupi ma unit 0.17 mwa ma unit 6.42 obetchedwa: 2.70%, mtengo wa betcha lililonse pa gudumu.

    Betcha limaluza ndi kuthekera kwa 19/37, kuphatikizapo ziro. Kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana: (19/37)⁶ = 0.0183, pafupifupi 1 pa 55, ndipo kenako ndalama zobetcha 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 = 63 zatha. Kupanda apo cycle imatha ndi kupambana ndi unit +1.

    Avareji: 1 × (1 − 0.0183) − 63 × 0.0183 = 1 − 64 × 0.0183 = ma unit −0.17.

    Ndalama zobetchedwa: betcha loyamba limaikidwa nthawi zonse, lachiwiri pokhapokha pambuyo pa kuluza, ndi zina zotero: 1 + 2 × (19/37) + 4 × (19/37)² + … + 32 × (19/37)⁵ = ma unit 6.42. Ndipo −0.17/6.42 = −2.70%.

    Kuzungulira kasanu ndi kamodzi kolembedwa kumangosankha kuti betcha lililonse lili mbali iti, ndipo gudumu silingakudziwe. Kuyendetsa onse atatu kumawirikiza katatu ndalama zobetchedwa ndi kutaya kwa avareji pamodzi nazo. Bollman (2024) amagwiritsa ntchito dongosololi pa gudumu la ku America, kumene lililonse la iwo limaluza kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana 2.1% ya nthawi.

Nthabwala yopumitsa

Kupambana kawirikawiri ndi kupambana ndalama ndi manambala osiyana.

Kupambana kawirikawiri ndi kupambana ndalama ndi manambala osiyana.

Magwero

  1. Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.” Review of the International Statistical Institute 37(3), 1969.
  2. Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling. Gambling Times / Lyle Stuart, 1984.
  3. Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.” Annals of Mathematics 37(2), 1936.
  4. Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.” Duke Mathematical Journal 5(2), 1939.
  5. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Mutu 13, roulette.
  6. Bollman, M. Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, & Roulette. CRC Press, 2021. Mutu 2, roulette.
  7. Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2024.
zinawunikidwa 2026-09-28chitsanzo: ya ku Ulaya, ziro imodzinjira zowerengera ↗magwero ↗