Labu ya Roulette · Labu · Ziwerengero · mphindi 8

Kufunika kwa Ziwerengero

“Kofunika” (significant) kumatanthauza kosatheka kwambiri pansi pa gudumu lachilungamo, osati “kwenikweni” ndipo osati “kopindulitsa”.

Yankho lalifupi

p-value ya 0.05 imatanthauza kuti gudumu lachilungamo likanapanga kalembedwe kopendekeka chotere kamodzi pa makumi awiri. Mukayang’ana magudumu makumi awiri, limodzi lidzapambana mayeso mwangozi.

mwambo
p < 0.05
mlingo wa zotsatira zabodza
5% pa mayeso aliwonse
kukonza
kubwereza
zimene si
p(gudumu ndi lokondera)

Kodi p-value ndi chiyani

KuthekeramasamuKuthekeraMwayi wa zotsatira, kuchokera 0 mpaka 1 kapena 0% mpaka 100%. Nambala imodzi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Werengani yonse → koona kupatuka kofanana kapena kokulirapo kuposa komwe kwaonedwa, ngati gudumu likanakhala lachilungamo. Ndi chonena chokhudza zambiri pansi pa lingaliro, osati chokhudza gudumu. p-valuelabup-valueKuthekera koona kupatuka kofanana kapena kokulirapo kuposa komwe kwaonedwa ngati gudumu likanakhala lachilungamo.Werengani yonse → ya 0.03 imati: gudumu lachilungamo limachita zimenezi 3% ya nthawi. Siimati: pali mwayi wa 97% woti gudumu ndi lokondera. Chonena chachiwiri chikanafunika kudziwa mmene magudumu okonderalabuGudumu lokonderaGudumu limene zolakwika zake zakuthupi zimapangitsa tibowo tina kukhala ndi kuthekera kopitirira 1/37. Ndi losowa, ndipo limadziwika pokhapokha ndi kuzungulira masauzande ambiri kolembedwa.Werengani yonse → alili ofala poyamba, ndipo m’kasino yamakono ndi osowa kwambiri, zimene zimapangitsa zotsatira zimodzi zofunika kukhala mwangozi kuposa chopezeka.

chonenacholondola?
p = 0.03 imatanthauza kuti gudumu lachilungamo limapereka zambiri zopitirira chotere 3% ya nthawiinde
p = 0.03 imatanthauza kuti pali mwayi wa 97% woti gudumu ndi lokonderaayi
p = 0.03 imatanthauza kuti kabowo kotentha kadzakhalabe kotenthaayi
p = 0.03 mutayang’ana magudumu 30 ndi umboni wamphamvuayi; mumayembekezera zotsatira zotere imodzi kapena ziwiri mwangozi
p = 0.03 kawiri, pa zitsanzo ziwiri zodziyimira payokha kuchokera pa gudumu lomwelotsopano n’koyenera kusamala

Kuyerekeza kangapo

Mayeso aliwonse amene mumachita pa gudumu lachilungamo ali ndi mwayi wa 5% wopambana pa mlingo wa 5%. Yesani magudumu makumi awiri ndipo limodzi limapambana. Yesani gudumu limodzi pa nthawi makumi awiri zosiyana ndipo imodzi imapambana. Yesani chitsanzo chimodzi ndi magulu 37 a kabowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse →, magulu asanu ndi limodzi a gawogudumuGawoMndandanda wolumikizana wa tibowo pa gudumu, mosiyana ndi gulu pa dongosolo la mabetcha.Werengani yonse → ndi magulu atatu a mtundu ndipo china chake chimapambana. Mankhwala ake ndi kusankha mayeso musanayang’ane zambiri, kuwachita kamodzi, ndi kutsimikiza pa zambiri zatsopano. Kuyang’anayang’ana kumene kumapeza gudumu “lokondera” kawirikawiri ndiko kumene kunapanga zotsatirazo.

Mwayi wa zotsatira zabodza imodzi pang’ono pa p < 0.05%
mayeso 1
5%
mayeso 5
23%
mayeso 10
40%
mayeso 20
64%
mayeso 37 (amodzi pa kabowo kalikonse)
85%
%
042.5085%
1 − 0.95ⁿ. Kuyesa kabowo kalikonse kokha kuli pafupifupi kotsimikizika kupeza kamodzi “kofunika”.

Kufunika poyerekeza ndi kukula

Chitsanzo chachikulu kwambiri chingathe kupangitsa kukondera kwachabechabe kukhala kofunika. Kabowo kogundidwa pa 1/36.5 m’malo mwa 1/37 ndi vuto lenileni limene likanafika pa kufunika pa kuzungulira mamiliyoni ochepa ndipo likanatayabe ndalama pa malipirondalamaMalipiroZimene betcha lopambana limabweza, zotchulidwa ngati “X ku 1” kuwonjezera pa ndalama zobetcha zobwezedwa.Werengani yonse → a 35 ku 1. Chofunika kwa wosewera ndi kukula kwa zotsatira: kodi kabowo kalikonse kamagundidwa pa 1/36 kapena kuposa, ndipo ndi zingati? Chi-square imakuuzani za gudumu; mlingo wa kugunda wokha ndiwo umakuuzani za betcha.

Mphamvu (power)

Cholakwika china ndi kuphonya kukondera kumene kulipo. Ndi kuzungulira 1,000, kabowo ka 1/30 (kukondera kwakukulu kwambiri) kamazindikirika pafupifupi theka la nthawi pa mlingo wa 5%. Kukula kwa chitsanzo, osati nzeru, ndiko kumakonza zimenezi. Tsamba la Kukula kwa Chitsanzo limapereka manambala.

Muyezo wothandiza

Kuti chonena cha kukondera chikhale chosangalatsa: mayeso osankhidwa pasadakhale, p < 0.01 m’malo mwa 0.05, kubwereza pa chitsanzo chodziyimira payokha cha kukula kofanana, ndi mlingo woyerekezeka wa kugunda pa tibowo tokondedwa wa 1/34 kapena kuposa pambuyo pobwereza. Muyezo umenewo wakwaniritsidwa kangapo kochepa m’mbiri ya masewerawa ndipo sunakwaniritsidwe konse, monga mmene zolembedwa zapoyera zikuonetsera, pa gudumu lamakono losamalidwa.

Mafunso

N’chifukwa chiyani 0.05?

Mwambo wochokera m’ma 1920. Palibe chapadera pa iwo; 0.01 ndi malire omveka bwino pamene mukuyang’ana magudumu ambiri.

Ngati p ndi yaing’ono kwambiri, kodi gudumu ndi lokondera ndithu?

Mwina silikupanga zotsatira zofanana. Zingakhale zotsatira za dealer, cholakwika cholemba kapena vuto lolowetsa zambiri. Bwerezani.

Kodi zotsatira zofunika zimandiuza kabowo koti ndibetche?

Ayi. Zimakuuzani kuti kagawidwe kali kolakwika. Kusanthula Magawo ndi kukula kwa zotsatira zimakuuzani kuti kuti.

Masamu Osangalatsa

Yesani nokha choyamba. Yankho lililonse labisika; litsegulireni mukakonzeka.

  1. Pa gudumu lina la zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse → ziwiri limene lanenedwa, dazenibetchaDazeni1–12, 13–24 kapena 25–36, amalipira 2:1.Werengani yonse → loyamba linatuluka ka 742 pa kuzungulira 3,000. Kodi zimenezo ndi makupatuka okhazikikamasamuKupatuka kokhazikikaMuzu wa sikweya wa kusinthasintha; mtunda wanthawi zonse wa zotsatira kuchokera ku mtengo woyembekezeka.Werengani yonse → angati pansi pa avareji, ndipo gudumu lachilungamo likanachita zimenezo kangati?

    Onetsani yankho

    Yankho Pafupifupi makupatuka okhazikika 8.1 pansi. Gudumu lachilungamo likanachita zimenezo pafupifupi kamodzi pa kuyesa 3 × 10¹⁵, kutanthauza kuti sizingachitike konse. Yankho lofalitsidwa pamodzi ndi funsoli likuti 11.75; ife tikupeza 8.07.

    Dazeni loyamba lili ndi tibowo 12 mwa tibowozipangizoKabowoChimodzi mwa tibowo 37 tokhala ndi manambala pa rotor. Kamatchedwanso: slot, cup.Werengani yonse → 38. Pa kuzungulira 3,000 limakhala ndi avareji ya kugunda 3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4, ndi kufalikira kwa √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.

    742 ili 205.4 pansi pa avareji: 205.4/25.5 = makufalikira 8.07.

    Gudumu lachilungamo limaperewera ndi makufalikira atatu pafupifupi kamodzi pa kuyesa 740; ndi makufalikira asanu ndi atatu, pafupifupi kamodzi pa 3 × 10¹⁵ (mkhota wa belu, mbali imodzi). Kuganizira kuti owerenga anazindikira dazeni loipa kwambiri mwa atatu sikusintha kanthu kofunika. Zotsatira ngati izi zimanena kuti gudumu, kapena kuwerengera, n’kolakwika. Pa gudumu la ziro imodzi chiwerengero chomwecho chikanakhala makufalikira 9.0 pansi (avareji 973.0, kufalikira 25.6).

Nthabwala yopumitsa

Gudumu limodzi pa magudumu achilungamo makumi awiri ndi “lofunika”. Ndilo tanthauzo la nambalayo.

Gudumu limodzi pa magudumu achilungamo makumi awiri ndi “lofunika”. Ndilo tanthauzo la nambalayo.

Magwero

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, kope la 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, mutu XIV.
  3. Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, mafunso a roulette. Zasinthidwa pa 3 August 2026.
zinawunikidwa 2026-09-28chitsanzo: ya ku Ulaya, ziro imodzinjira zowerengera ↗magwero ↗