Njira · Progression yolakwika · mphindi 9

Njira ya Roulette ya Martingale

Njira ya roulette ya Martingale imawirikiza betcha pambuyo pa kuluza kulikonse ndipo imabwerera ku betcha loyambira mutapambana. Kupambana kulikonse kumabweza kutaya konse kwam’mbuyo kuphatikiza unit imodzi yoyambira. Tsamba ili m’munsimu likusonyeza zimene zimenezo zimachita ku ndalama zosewerera, ndi chifukwa chake singasinthe kutayika koyembekezeka.

Yankho lachiduleSiligonjetsa gudumu. Monga njira yowirikiza ya roulette, Martingale imapanga kupambana kochepa kochuluka ndi kutaya kwakukulu mwa apo ndi apo. Pa mazungulidwe ochuluka bwanji, kutayika koyembekezeka kudakali 2.70% ya ndalama zonse zobetchedwa, ndipo chifukwa progression imabetcha zambiri, kutayika koyembekezeka pa gawo lililonse n’kwakukulu kuposa pobetcha mofanana, osati kochepa.

Kodi dongosolo la roulette la Martingale limagwira ntchito bwanji?

Luzani, ndipo wirikizani. Pambanani, ndipo bwererani ku betcha loyambira. Dongosolo lonse ndi limenelo. Ndi betcha loyambira la $10 ndi malire a tebulo a $500, ndondomeko imatha pambuyo pa kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi. Mzati womaliza ndi kuthekera kofika pa sitepe imeneyo pa betcha la even-money, pomwe kuluza kulikonse kuli ndi kuthekera kwa 19/37.

kuluza #betcha lotsatirazonse pangozip(kufika)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Betcha loyambira $10, malire a tebulo $500. Pambuyo pa kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi betcha lotsatira ndi $640, kupitirira malire: progression imasweka ndi $630 zotayika. Mwayi wa kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana pa zofiira ndi (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, pafupifupi kamodzi pa mayesero 55.

Yendani mu dongosolo

Kuluza kumawirikiza ndalama zobetcha. Kupambana kumabwerera poyambira.

ndalama zobetcha zotsatira1zotsatira mpaka pano0kuzungulira0

Ndalama zobetcha ndi zotsatira zili mu ma unit a betcha loyambira.

Kodi gawo limaoneka bwanji?

Masitepe ang’onoang’ono mmwamba, kenako chitseko chapansi. Mu Martingale ya roulette, ndondomeko iliyonse yomalizidwa ya kuwirikiza imawonjezera betcha limodzi loyambira, choncho mzere umakwera mosalekeza. Ndondomeko imene ikugunda malire a $500 imatenga $630 nthawi imodzi: masitepe 63 amenewo.

Magawo khumi a Martingale, betcha loyambira $10, malire $500zotsatira poyerekeza ndi poyambira

magawo 1,000 × kuzungulira 500 · wofiirira p10/p25/p75/p90, buluu wopepuka pakati, zitsanzo 83 zozimirira · sunthani pa tchati kuti muone ma quantile pa kuzungulira

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
pakati −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

magawo 1,000 × kuzungulira 500 · mzere wa y wadulidwa pa peresentayilo ya 1–99 (monyanyira −$1,000 mpaka +$2,640) · kuzungulira 500 · loyambira $10 · even money

Mzere uliwonse ndi gawo limodzi la mabetcha a even-money kuchokera pa ndalama zosewerera za $1,000. Kukwera kwautali, kugwa kwadzidzidzi.

Masitepe ang’onoang’ono mmwamba, kenako chitseko chapansi chimene chimawatenga onse nthawi imodzi.

Choyerekezera

Makonzedwe aliwonse amayendetsa magawo 2,000 a mabetcha a even-money kuchokera pa ndalama zosewerera za $1,000. Zotsatira zimasinthidwa nthawi yomweyo.

Betcha loyambira

Malire a tebulo

Kuzungulira pa gawo lililonse

Zotsatira za magawo · magawo 2,000 · kuzungulira 100 · loyambira $10 · malire $500kutaya ← | → phindu

−$1,000$0+$650

ikani cholozera pa mzere · mizere yofiira ndi magawo otaya, yobiriwira yopambana, mzere wotumbuluka uli pa $0

magawo omwe ali ndi phindu

40.8%

zotsatira zapakati (median)

−$130

zotsatira za avareji

−$66.44

progression inalephereka

59.3% ya magawo

peresentayilo ya 5

−$1,000

kutsika kwa ndalama kwakukulu (pakati)

−$650

Magawo ambiri amatha ali ndi phindu laling’ono (40.8%), ndipo ichi n’chimene chimakopa. Avareji ndi yotayika (−$66.44) chifukwa magawo otaya ndi aakulu: progression inagunda malire a tebulo mu 59.3% ya magawo. Wobetcha mofanana $10 pa kuzungulira komweko akuyembekezeka kutaya pafupifupi $27.

Kangati kuluza kotsatizana kumabwera

Betcha la even-money pa gudumu la ziro imodzi limaluza kuzungulira 19 mwa 37. Mzere uliwonse ndi kuthekera kwakuti kuzungulira kotsatizana kwa chiwerengero china konse kuluze, ndi zimene wosewera Martingale, amene amawirikiza akaluza kulikonse, wataya pofika nthawi imeneyo.

Betcha loyambira

kuluza motsatizana	kuthekera	pafupifupi 1 mwa	zotayika mpaka pano	betcha lotsatira
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Kuthekera ndi 19/37 kuchulukitsidwa ndi kokha kamodzi pa kuluza kulikonse, kuwerengedwa kuchokera pa kuzungulira kumodzi kodziwika. Gawo lalitali la masewera lili ndi kuzungulira kwambiri kumene kuluza kotere kungayambire, choncho m’madzulo amodzi n’kotheka kwambiri kuposa zimene mzere umodzi ukusonyeza.

Kuluza khumi ndi kasanu motsatizana kumachitika pafupifupi kamodzi pa mayesero 22,000. Zimenezo zimamveka zotetezeka. Sizili choncho, pa zifukwa ziwiri. Kuzungulira kulikonse kumayambitsa kuyesa kwatsopano, ndipo madzulo amodzi ali ndi mazungulidwe mazana. Ndipo palibe amene amafika pa khumi ndi zisanu: kuchokera pa betcha loyambira la $10, malire a $500 amathetsa kuwirikiza pambuyo pa kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi, kumene kumachitika pafupifupi kamodzi pa mayesero 55.

N’chifukwa chiyani singasinthe mwayi?

Mtengo woyembekezeka umawonjezerana. Ngati betcha lililonse lili ndi zoyembekezeka za −2.70% ya ndalama zake zobetcha, ndiye kuti ndondomeko iliyonse ya mabetcha, mosasamala kanthu kuti ndalama zobetcha zasankhidwa bwanji, ili ndi zoyembekezeka za −2.70% ya zonse zobetchedwa. Kusankha ndalama zobetcha kungadalire zotsatira zam’mbuyo; sikungadalire zotsatira zotsatira.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ amasankhidwa kuzungulira i kusanachitike; Xᵢ = ±1 sadalira bᵢ

Maganizo olakwika ofala

“Mumangofunika kupambana kamodzi kuti mubweze chilichonse.”

N’zoona mkati mwa progression imene imamalizidwa. Progression imene simamalizidwa, chifukwa cha malire a tebulo kapena ndalama zanu zosewerera, imataya ndondomeko yonse, ndipo ndondomekoyo ndi yaikulu mwadala.

“Ndi ndalama zosewerera zokwanira singalephere.”

Malire a tebulo amaletsa kuwirikiza kale kwambiri ndalama zosewerera zambiri zisanathe. Popanda malire, ndalama zosewerera zofunika zimakula mochulukitsa pamene phindu pa cycle iliyonse limakhala unit imodzi yoyambira.

“Kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana n’kosatheka.”

Pa zofiira kumachitika pa 1.83% ya mazenera a mazungulidwe asanu ndi limodzi. Pa gawo la mazungulidwe 200 nthawi zambiri mudzaona kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana kamodzi osachepera.

Nthabwala yopumitsa

Kupambana kochepa kochuluka, kutaya kwakukulu kumodzi kosowa. Ndipo chiwongola mumachilipira nokha.

Mapeto a masamuDongosolo la Martingale mu roulette limasinthanitsa kuthekera kwakukulu kwa kupambana kochepa ndi kuthekera kochepa kwa kutaya kwakukulu. Ndi inshuwalansi yogulitsidwa mozondoka: mumatolera kalipiro kakang’ono madzulo ambiri ndipo mumalipira nokha chiwongola chachikulu chosowa. Imakweza ndalama zobetchedwa pa gawo lililonse, choncho imakweza kutayika koyembekezeka pa gawo lililonse. Siichepetsa ndipo singachepetse phindu la kasino. Ngati mugwiritsabe ntchito njira ya Martingale pa roulette, dziwani pasadakhale malo amene imasweka: ndi betcha loyambira la $10 ndi malire a $500, ndiko kuluza kasanu ndi kamodzi motsatizana, chochitika cha 1.8% pa kuyesa kulikonse. Onani Kusamalira Ndalama Zosewerera mu Roulette ndi Malire Otaya / Malire a Phindu.