Kuyenda Pang’onopang’ono · Kuyenda pang’onopang’ono · mphindi 8

Kuyenda Pang’onopang’ono: Madzulo a $100 pa Zofiira

Madola zana, machipi a madola asanu, zofiira pa kuzungulira kulikonse, ndi lamulo losiya. Kuzungulira ndi kuzungulira.

Yankho lalifupi

Madzulo oyerekezedwa pa tebulo la pompopompo: mpaka mazungulidwe 60 a $5 pa zofiira kuchokera pa bajeti ya $100, ndi malire otaya a $50 ndi malire a phindu a $50. Malire otaya anathetsa gawoli pa kuzungulira 36. Gawoli likusonyeza momwe kusinthasintha kumaonekera panthawi yeniyeni ndi chifukwa chake lamulo losiya ndilo chisankho chokhacho chimene chinali chofunika.

bajeti
$100
ndalama zobetcha
$5 pa zofiira
malamulo osiya
−$50 / +$50
kutayika koyembekezeka
$8.11 pa mazungulidwe 60

Dongosolo

Kodi pali njira yabwino kwambiri ya roulette ndi $100? Palibe imene imachepetsa mtengo wa avareji. Bajeti imeneyo ndi ndalama zimene tingathe kutaya; chimene timasankha ndi ndalama zobetcha ndi malamulo osiya. Ndalama zobetcha $5, 5% ya bajeti, zimene zimatipatsa mabetcha oluza pafupifupi makumi awiri m’manja. Malire otayanjiraMalire otayaKuchuluka kwa kutaya kosankhidwa pasadakhale kumene mumathetsera gawo la masewera.Werengani yonse → pa −$50 ndi malire a phindunjiraMalire a phinduCholinga cha phindu chosankhidwa pasadakhale chimene mumathetsera gawo la masewera.Werengani yonse → pa +$50, osankhidwa tsopano. Kutayika koyembekezekamasamuKutayika koyembekezekaMtengo woyembekezeka kuchulukitsa ndi ndalama zonse zobetchedwa; kuchuluka kwapakati kwa ndalama zotayika mu gawo la masewera kapena nthawi inayake.Werengani yonse → pa mazungulidwe 60 ndi 60 × $5 / 37 = $8.11. Tikuyembekezera kuchoka ndi pafupifupi $92 ndi kukhala paliponse pakati pa $20 ndi $170 ndi kuthekeramasamuKuthekeraMwayi wa zotsatira, kuchokera 0 mpaka 1 kapena 0% mpaka 100%. Nambala imodzi: 1/37 = 2.70%.Werengani yonse → koyenera.

Mazungulidwe 1–20

F K K F F 0 K F F K F K K K F F K F K F. ZofiirabetchaZofiiraBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 ofiira. Mu Chifalansa: rouge.Werengani yonse → khumi, zakudabetchaZakudaBetcha la even-money pa manambala 18 akuda. Mu Chifalansa: noir.Werengani yonse → zisanu ndi zinayi, zirogudumuZiroKabowo kamodzi kobiriwira kamene betcha la even-money, dazeni kapena mzati siliphimba; gwero la phindu la kasino. Imatchedwanso: ziro imodzi, 0.Werengani yonse → imodzi: +$50 − $45 − $5 = $0. Ndalama zotsala $100. Ziro pa kuzungulira 6 inawononga chipindalamaChipiChizindikiro choimira ndalama yokhazikika, choikidwa pa dongosolo la mabetcha kuti mupange betcha. Chimatchedwanso: check.Werengani yonse → ndipo, pa 1/37, inabwera msanga pang’ono. Palibe chachilendo apa. Tili pa ziro pambuyo pa mazungulidwe makumi awiri.

kuzungulirachotulukazotsatira za betchandalama zotsala
1zofiira+$5$105
2–3zakuda, zakuda−$10$95
4–5zofiira, zofiira+$10$105
6ziro−$5$100
7zakuda−$5$95
8–9zofiira, zofiira+$10$105
10–14K F K K K−$15$90
15–16zofiira, zofiira+$10$100
17–20K F K F$0$100
Ndondomeko yoyerekezedwa kuchokera ku gudumu lachilungamo. Yanu idzasiyana mwatsatanetsatane uliwonse koma osati m’ziwerengero.

Mazungulidwe 21–36

K K K K K F K K F K K F K K K K. Zakuda zisanu poyambira, khumi ndi zitatu zonse pamodzi: zofiira zitatu, zakuda khumi ndi zitatu, +$15 − $65 = −$50. Ndalama zotsala $50. Imeneyi ndi nthawi imene imapangitsa anthu kusintha betcha lawo, kuwirikiza kapena kusintha mtundu. Kuthekera kwa zakuda 13 kapena kuposerapo m’mazungulidwe 16 n’kochepera 1%; zinali zoti zichitikire winawake usikuuno. Tatsika ndi $50 kuchokera poyambira, malire otaya akugwira ntchito pa kuzungulira 36, ndipo tikuimirira.

Zakuda khumi ndi zitatu m’mazungulidwe khumi ndi asanu ndi limodzi, ndipo malire otaya akufikiridwa pa kuzungulira 36.

Mazungulidwe 37–60, popanda ife

F K F K, kenako F F K F 0 F K F F K F F K K F F K F K F. Zofiira khumi ndi zinayi, zakuda zisanu ndi zinayi, ziro imodzi: tikanakhalabe, +$70 − $45 − $5 = +$20 ndi ndalama zotsala $70 pa kuzungulira 60. Mazungulidwe makumi atatu ndi asanu ndi limodzi pa tebulo la pompopompo ndi pafupifupi mphindi 45. Tinachoka ndi $50, titatsika ndi $50, poyerekeza ndi −$4.86 yoyembekezeka pa mazungulidwe 36. Zofiira khumi ndi zitatu, zakuda makumi awiri ndi ziwiri, ziro imodzi.

Madzulo athu, ndi ena khumi ndi limodzi amene akanatha kuchitikazotsatira poyerekeza ndi poyambira
+$190$0−$100+$80−$500125250375500kuzungulirazotsatira
magawo 1,000 × kuzungulira 500 · wofiirira p10/p25/p75/p90, buluu wopepuka pakati, zitsanzo 82 zozimirira · sunthani pa tchati kuti muone ma quantile pa kuzungulira
  • p10 −$100
  • p25 −$100
  • pakati −$100
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$70
magawo 1,000 × kuzungulira 500 · mzere wa y wadulidwa pa peresentayilo ya 1–99 (monyanyira −$100 mpaka +$300) · kuzungulira 500 · loyambira $5 · even money
Imodzi mwa izi ili pafupifupi madzulo athu. Zina ndi dongosolo lomwelo pa mausiku ena. Malire otaya a $50 akanathetsa iwiri ya izo msanga; malire a phindu a $50 akanathetsa umodzi.

Zimene zinachitika

Tinalipira pafupifupi $5 pa mphindi 45 za roulette, kuphatikiza $45 ya tsoka. Zofiira khumi ndi zitatu m’mazungulidwe 36 ndi zochepa kwambiri poyerekeza ndi 17.5 zoyembekezeka, ndipo zofiira zisanu ndi zinayi kuchepera zakuda ndi −$45 ziro isanawerengedwe. Madzulowo anasankhidwa ndi kusinthasinthamasamuKusinthasinthaMuyeso wa kufalikira kwa zotsatira kuzungulira mtengo woyembekezeka. Kwakukulu pa straight up, kochepa pa mabetcha a even-money.Werengani yonse →; mtengo unasankhidwa ndi ndalama zobetcha ndi mazungulidwe; malire otaya anasankha nthawi yotha. Kukhalabe kukanabwezera $20 pofika kuzungulira 60, ndipo chimenecho si chifukwa chokhalira: kubwezako kunalinso kusinthasintha, monganso zakuda zotsatizana zimene zinabwera kale.

Zimene sitinachite

Kusintha ndalama zobetcha titaluza (imeneyo ndi progressionnjiraProgressionLamulo lililonse limene limasintha ndalama zobetcha potengera zotsatira zakale. Maprogression olakwika amazikweza pambuyo poluza, abwino pambuyo popambana.Werengani yonse →, ndipo imakweza ndalama zonse zobetchedwandalamaNdalama zonse zobetchedwaNdalama zonse zobetchedwa mu gawo la masewera kapena nthawi inayake, kuphatikizapo ndalama zopambana zobetchedwanso. Zimatchedwanso: handle, action.Werengani yonse →). Kusintha mtundu pambuyo pa zakuda zotsatizana (mwayi wofanana ndendende). Kukhala kupitirira mazungulidwe 60 chifukwa tinali “pafupi kufika pa ziro” (kumeneko ndi kukambirananso malire otaya). Kubetcha dazenibetchaDazeni1–12, 13–24 kapena 25–36, amalipira 2:1.Werengani yonse → limene “silinatuluke” (phindu la kasino lomwelo, maonekedwe osiyana). Chilichonse mwa izi chikanasintha maonekedwe a madzulowo ndipo palibe chimene chikanasintha mtengo wake woyembekezeka.

Mafunso

N’chifukwa chiyani $5 osati $10?

Machipi makumi awiri m’manja m’malo mwa khumi. Madzulo amatalika; mtengo pa kuzungulira kulikonse umachepa ndi theka.

Kodi tebulo la ku France likanathandiza?

Kutayika koyembekezeka $4.05 m’malo mwa $8.11. Inde.

Kodi zakuda zotsatizana zinali chizindikiro?

Cha kanthu ayi. Zakuda khumi ndi zitatu m’mazungulidwe khumi ndi asanu ndi limodzi zimachitika pafupifupi madzulo amodzi pa 125.

Nthabwala yopumitsa

Ndalama zobetcha ndi mazungulidwe zimakhazikitsa mtengo. Gudumu linakhazikitsa mtima.

Ndalama zobetcha ndi mazungulidwe zimakhazikitsa mtengo. Gudumu linakhazikitsa mtima.

Magwero

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Mutu 13, roulette.
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